Senegal’s domestic gas reserves will be mainly used to produce electrical energy. Authorities expect that home gas infrastructure projects will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, supplied there is no delay. The monetization of these significant power resources is on the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide technology group Wärtsilä performed in-depth studies that analyse the financial impact of the various gas-to-power strategies available to Senegal. Two very completely different technologies are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle fuel turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very important system price variations between the two major gas-to-power technologies the country is at present considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are in reality much better suited than combined cycle gas turbines to harness energy from Senegal’s new gas resources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total value variations between the two technologies might reach as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 depending on situations.
Two competing and really different technologies
The state-of-the-art energy combine models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised energy situations to establish the cost optimum approach to deliver new era capability for a selected country, exhibits that ICE and CCGT applied sciences present vital cost variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program operating to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally confirmed and reliable, they’re very different in terms of the profiles in which they will operate. CCGT is pressure gauge octa that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, the place it can function at 90% load issue at all times. On the other hand, flexible ICE know-how can function efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to any other era technologies that will make up the country’s vitality combine.
In explicit our research reveals that when working in an electricity network of restricted dimension similar to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, relying on CCGTs to significantly broaden the network capability would be extremely pricey in all potential eventualities.
Cost differences between the applied sciences are explained by a number of factors. First of all, hot climates negatively impression the output of fuel turbines more than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated entry to low-cost home gas, the working prices turn into less impactful than the funding prices. In other phrases, because low gas prices lower operating costs, it is financially sound for the nation to rely on ICE power crops, that are cheaper to construct.
Technology modularity additionally plays a key function. Senegal is expected to require an extra 60-80 MW of era capacity annually to have the power to meet the increasing demand. This is far lower than the capability of typical CCGTs plants which averages 300-400 MW that have to be in-built one go, leading to pointless expenditure. Engine power vegetation, on the other hand, are modular, which means they can be built precisely as and when the country needs them, and additional prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are vital. The model exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT vegetation at the expense of ICE-gas, it will result in as much as 240 million dollars of extra price for the system by 2035. The cost difference between the applied sciences can even enhance to 350 million USD in favor of ICE technology if Senegal also chooses to construct new renewable vitality capacity inside the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The development of gas infrastructure is a posh and prolonged endeavour. Program delays aren’t uncommon, inflicting gasoline supply disruptions that will have an enormous monetary impression on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria is conscious of one thing about that. Only last year, vital gas provide issues have caused shutdowns at a number of the country’s largest fuel turbine power vegetation. Because Gas generators operate on a steady combustion process, they require a constant provide of fuel and a steady dispatched load to generate constant power output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns happen, placing an excellent pressure on the general system. ICE-Gas crops then again, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their flexible operating profile, they have been capable of maintain a a lot greater stage of availability
The research took a deep dive to analyse the financial impression of two years delay within the fuel infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to invest into gasoline engines, the value of gasoline delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in additional cost.
Whichever means you have a glance at it, new ICE-Gas era capacity will minimize the total value of electrical energy in Senegal in all potential eventualities. If Senegal is to satisfy electricity demand development in a cost-optimal means, a minimal of 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capability will be required by 2026.
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